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NFL Christmas Games Betting Preview

Jared Mello
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Let’s take a look at my sports betting preview for Saturday’s two games:

Cleveland @ Green Bay

I think this game is going to be a lot closer than most people think. Statistically, these teams are pretty similar. Cleveland is coming off of a crazy week because of covid and a game that got pushed to Monday night with Nick Mullens at QB. The Browns should be getting most of their guys back for Saturday’s afternoon game and there is a stylistic matchup I think most people are ignoring. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP-caliber season. Yes, Davante Adams is arguably the best WR in the league. But people see that and think it’s an automatic win against a team like the Browns. Here’s your matchup stats: GB is ranked 25th in the NFL in rushing yds/attempt giving up 4.5yds. Cleveland is ranked 3rd behind only the Colts and Eagles in rushing yds/attempt averaging 4.9yds. One of my books has this line at 9 so I just can’t pass up that number when the stats don’t add up.

Pick: CLE +9 (-125)

Indianapolis @ Arizona

You don’t have to get too deep in stats for this one. Arizona is being undervalued after a stinker last week where they lost to the freaking Lions by 18pts! On the other side, the Colts are being overvalued after beating a Patriots team that had looked good going into that game, but made some costly mistakes. The wild card here is Jonathan Taylor. The Cardinals have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, and across the season, their run defense has struggled. However, their run defense has been better recently averaging 4yds/attempt in their last three games (compared to 4.6 on the season). Indy is also ranked 25th in defensive pass success, and Arizona ranks 4th in offensive pass success rates, so there’s a big mismatch there. Give me the home team in a bounce-back spot against a team that just celebrated like they won a playoff game last week.

Pick: ARI PK

About Post Author

Jared Mello

Avid Boston sports fan. Lover of all things sports betting. I try to bring a realistic approach to the sports that I cover.
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  • Avid Boston sports fan. Lover of all things sports betting. I try to bring a realistic approach to the sports that I cover.

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