TNF Betting Preview: SF @ TEN
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This was a difficult game for me to handicap. These teams are very similar statistically. Let’s take a look:
| Tennessee | San Francisco | |
| Off. PPG | 13th | 15th |
| Def. PPG | 14th | 18th |
| O. Yds/Rush Att. | 15th | 17th |
| D. Yds/Rush Att. | 5th | 14th |
| O. Run Success | 23rd | 14th |
| O. Pass Success | 16th | 12th |
| D. Run Success | 22nd | 5th |
| D. Pass Success | 9th | 5th |
It would seem that SF has a slight edge on the defensive success side. What does it for me in this matchup is the pass game, believe it or not. Jimmy Garoppolo has been very good lately, and having a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk helps too.
The 49ers currently rank 1st (!) in passing yds per completion with a whopping 12.1yds. The Titans rank 29th with a mere 9.4yds per completion. And on the defensive side, SF is 9th in yds/completion allowed (9.8yds) and Tennessee is 16th(10.3).
So in a game where the teams are very similar, I’m going to take the team that can both pass and defend the pass better, despite the fact that both teams are really known as run heavy offenses.
Plus, Tennessee has been getting by somehow on hopes and dreams without Henry, Brown, and Julio Jones for the last few weeks. I think their luck finally runs out because San Francisco is actually a good team that’s starting to get hot.
Pick: SF -3
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