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Here is my Week 16 Sports Betting Preview:
Man, did I have a rough week last week. Unfortunately, I put my information together between Wednesday-Thursday and totally blew the whole covid angle. What can you do besides take it on the chin and move forward? I wonder if people had a rough week in fantasy football last week? I haven’t heard anyone talk about it at all. Well, here’s to hoping this week goes significantly better.
Last week: 6-10 (major yikes)
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Given the offensive showing from the Bucs last week, it might be tempting to take the Panthers +10. I’m here to tell you to STAY AWAY! Tampa Bay has the best offense in the NFL, regardless of what they looked like against New Orleans last week. TB12 has struggled against NO in the regular season in his whole career (we heard about it enough during the broadcast). The Carolina Panthers have one of the WORST offenses in the NFL. They rank 17th in run success and 31st in pass success. Both of these teams are best in the league at limiting the pass. TB ranks 1st in defensive yards per completion and CAR ranks 2nd. Both teams have very good defenses, and the Tampa offense will be missing starting RB Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin who is done for the year with a torn ACL. For what it’s worth- in TB games this year with a total of 50 or less, the under is 4-2.
Pick: Under 43
LA Chargers @ Houston
I’ll save you the shpeal on this one. The Chargers are an average to above average team in most areas. The Texans are a very bad team. Justin Herbert is a budding superstar. Davis Mills makes David Carr blush. Take the Chargers and be done with it. *Caveat – I think this is a great spot for a teaser* I love getting LAC -4 & Under 52. Houston has scored more than 21pts only 5 times this year and 2 of those were against Jacksonville.
Pick: LAC -10
Buffalo @ New England
I know these teams just played a couple of weeks ago, but you can toss that out the window. There won’t be any 50mph winds and snow for this one, so I’d expect Mac Jones if probably going to throw more than three times. Buffalo is going to be without Cole Beasley, Gabriel David, and Cody Ford for this one because of covid. Buffalo’s defense ranks 2nd in both run and pass success while New England ranks 11th in run and 4th in pass success. New England has shown that they can be run on, but Buffalo has a mostly non-existent run game. Both offenses rank in the Top 10 in PPG, however their defenses sit 1st and 2nd in defensive PPG. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this one.
Pick: Under 43.5
Detroit @ Atlanta
A friend of mine who happens to be a Falcons fan has said, “Take Atlanta to beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.” That’s exactly what I’m doing here. Jared Goff is in the covid protocol which means it is likely that the starter for the Lions might be Tim Boyle. I don’t need stats for this one. Give me the Falcons at less than a TD versus and Tim Boyle-led Detroit Lions.
Pick: Atlanta -6.5
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
There’s been some movement in this line since Lamar Jackson has been ruled out. When these teams played in Week 7 Cincinnati won in a blowout 41-17. I would imagine more of the same for this one. Cincy is largely the same team as in Week 7, and although Jamar Chase has cooled off recently, the offense is still potent. Baltimore on the other hand, has only gotten worse. No Lamar Jackson, their secondary is decimated, and they will most likely be without guard Ben Powers, Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins. I liked this at Cincy -3 and I still like it at -4.5
Pick: CIN -4.5
LA Rams @ Minnesota
The only team giving up more rushing yds per attempt than Minnesota is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not a good stat. Meanwhile, the Rams rank 3rd in NFL in defensive rushing yds per attempt. Dalvin Cook is out for this game, and despite Alexander Mattison looking very good as his replacement this year, he will be going against a very good defense. The Rams rank 5th in PPG and 11th in defensive PPG. Minnesota is 12th and 23rd respectively. The Rams had a rough couple of weeks, but they’re turned it around and now won three in a row after losing three in row. They are back to being considered Super Bowl contenders.
Pick: LAR -3.5
Jacksonville @ NY Jets
There seems to be a lot of toilet bowl games recently. This certainly fits the mold. Both teams are very bad. The Jets rank dead last (32nd) in defensive PPG and 27th in offensive PPG. Jacksonville ranks 32nd in offensive PPG and 27th in defensive PPG. The Jets have a very thin secondary due to injuries and covid. I hate everything about this game. Usually, I’d just say to take the team getting the points and move on, but Jacksonville is only getting 1.5pts in this one. I’ll take the over and just hope the offenses can score against these abysmal defenses.
Pick: Over 41.5
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
The Giants offense has been very bad this year. When you take Daniel Jones out of the equation, they’ve looked even worse than you could imagine. Now the hopes of the 30th ranked scoring offense sits with Jake Fromm. In the last three games the Giants are averaging 12 points. Very bad. Philly runs the ball very well, in fact, the only team that averages more yards per rush attempt is the Colts. The Giants rank 20th in defensive rushing yds/attempt. 10pts is a big-boy spread though, and all it takes is something goofy or a garbage time TD to blow a large spread. I don’t think the Giants will be able to stop Philly today, so I’ll take their team total. Philly has scored more than 25pts in 4 of their last 5 games. However, it’s worth noting that the one game they didn’t go over was against the Giants in a 13-7 loss.
Pick: PHI Team Total Over 25.5
Chicago @ Seattle
Nick Foles is starting for the Bears in this one. They will also be without starting LT Jason Peters, DL Akiem Hicks, and two starters in the secondary. With Tyler Lockett back and a Seattle offense that has started to turn it around (10th in PPG over the last 3 games) I think Seattle gets it done by at least a TD. The Bears offense ranks 29th in PPG and 24th in defensive PPG. This team is a mess, and everyone is just waiting for the season to end so that they can fire Matt Nagy.
Pick: SEA -6.5
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
There’s a very good chance that KC will be without Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in this one. They will also be missing the right side of their offensive line with Kyle Long and Lucas Niang being out. Somehow, despite all that information, the line has moved from KC -7 to -8.5. The Steelers are a very bad team, but their offense still has weapons with Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, Dionte Johnson, and James Washington. Big Ben is washed, but these guys should be able to make something work when given the ball. Neither defense is all that great and the total has moved from 48.5 to 44 at one point, but has shifted back up to 45 in most books. One of my books has this at 44.5 so I like the over in that spot.
Pick: Over 44.5
Denver @ Las Vegas
We’re one FG away from talking about the 6-7 Raiders coming in on a 3-game losing streak. The Raiders offense just hasn’t been the same since Jon Gruden left. Apparently, no one else on the staff knew how to call a proper Spider-2-Y-Banana. Denver’s rushing offense is 10th in yards per attempt, and Vegas’ defense is 17th in opponent rushing yards per attempt. The books are daring you to take the Under 41 with two teams that have averaged 19pts in their last three games. However, the LV defense ranks 32nd in Red Zone efficiency and 27th in third down defense, so don’t expect them to hold Denver to many FGs. For that reason, I’m out on the under.
Pick: DEN PK
Washington @ Dallas
The NFC East is really good at beating up on each other. Dallas covered -6.5 two weeks ago in Washington despite going to sleep in the 2H. A game that went into halftime with DAL up 24-0 ended in a 27-20 win. The Washington defense is pretty good at stopping the run. They rank 10th in run success and 14th in opponent rushing yards per attempt. Zeke hasn’t rushed for more than 52yds in his last 8 games. Tony Pollard is playing through torn plantar fascia in his foot. I don’t imagine the Cowboys will find much success running the ball, however, their passing game is elite. They rank 8th in pass success and 13th in passing yards per completion with 10.5yds. At home, they average 11.9yds per completion. Washington’s defense ranks 31st in pass success and 25th in opponent yards per completion.
Pick: DAL -10
Miami @ New Orleans
The Monday night game projects to be a disappointment. Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in PPG, but their defenses rank in the top half in opponent PPG. The New Orleans offense ranks 27th in rushing yards per attempt but 6th in passing yards per completion. The Dolphins offense ranks 31st in both of those stats. Keep in mind that the Saints offense will be run by Ian Book making his first NFL start, so I don’t expect their passing offense to keep pace with its 6th ranked yards per completion. The total in this game is terrifyingly low and they are begging people to take the over. I won’t do it. I think Brian Flores will have Ian Book seeing ghosts in his first start. The Saints have a beatable secondary, and Tua can sling it to a finally all healthy receiving core of Devante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. The benefit of a 37.5 total is a low team total threshold. I think Miami probably wins so I don’t hate them -2.5 either. In Miami’s last 5 games they have scored 31, 20, 33, 24, and 22.
Pick: Miami Team Total O 17.5